Expected high ratings for this year's Oscar telecast on Sunday are likely to take a bite out of box-office revenue on that day, some analysts are warning. Moreover, on Friday and Saturday, many moviegoers may pass up the latest releases in order to catch some of the Oscar contenders that they missed, like The King's Speech, True Grit and Black Swan. If they also read critics, they're also likely to stay clear of the new arrivals, both of them R-rated The Farrelly brothers' Hall Pass , starring Owen Wilson and Jason Sudeikis, and the not-screened-for-U.S.-critics Drive Angry , starring Nicolas Cage. There's also a wild card in the mix that the box-office forecasters can't get a handle on -- a re-edited Justin Bieber Never Say Never Director's Fan Cut^ that sees 30 minutes of material excised from the film released just three weeks ago and replaced by 40 minutes of new footage. In any event, no film at the box office this weekend is likely to earn as much as $20 million, the analysts say.