Prediction Genius Nate Silver Just Called The Oscars...
Nate Silver has predicted Argo will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards on Sunday
Statistician Nate Silver has predicted the results of Sunday's Academy Awards, with Argo and Lincoln both performing strongly. Silver - one of the most respected individuals in his field - first caught the public's attention when he correctly predicted the outcome of 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. In last year's contest, he produced a clean sweep.
Writing in the New York Times, Silver admits to having used his formula in the Oscars before but was only 75 per cent correct on average. The statistician appears to agree with the bookmakers on most categories, calling Argo for Best Picture and Daniel Day-Lewis to be named Best Actor for his acclaimed performance in Lincoln. He suggests Jennifer Lawrence will win Best Actress and Anne Hathaway Best Supporting Actress (pretty safe so far, huh?), though says Tommy Lee Jones will beat Christoph Waltz and Philip Seymour Hoffman to the prize of Best Supporting Actor. The latter is perhaps his most controversial prediction, though Jones remains the favourite with the bookmakers, just.
Elsewhere, Silver predicts Steven Spielberg will win Best Director by the slenderest of margins over Life of Pi's Ang Lee. Outlining his formula, he writes, "Our forecasts are based on which candidates have won other awards in their category. We give more weight to awards that have frequently corresponded with the Oscar winners in the past, and which are voted on by people who will also vote for the Oscars."
Do you agree with Silver's predictions?